July 07, 2008
July 06, 2008
How happy are you?
Denmark is the happiest country in the world and Zimbabwe the least happy, according to new data just released by the University of Michigan Institute for Social Research as part of its World Values Survey. The USA only comes 16th, while the UK is just 21st, out of 97 countries - containing 90% of the world's population - that were surveyed.
The survey suggested that most people in most countries are becoming happier. In the 52 countries for which a time series is available, the happiest index rose in 40 cases.
You can check put the media release here and view the results for 97 countries here. Another way of looking at this data is the Inglehart-Welzel Cultural Map of the World.
If you want some ideas on how to make a country happier, look at my review of the Richard Layard book "Happiness". If you want some tips for your personal situation, you should look at my web page on "How To Be Happy".
July 05, 2008
The American presidential election (47)
The American presidential election is all about the electoral college and the winning or losing of each state - rather than about the overall popular vote (as Al Gore demonstrated four years ago).
There's still four months to go in the election, but a state by state analysis suggests that, as of now, it's looking good for Obama - see this site where you can create your own map and the situation as calculated on the CNN site.
Of course, a lot could happen in the next few months and the election could still be very close, but then again Obama could win very decisively (which is what I am expecting and hoping).
July 04, 2008
Death penalty for bloggers?
This news is horrifying.
Forgotten World (140): Belize
Belize - located south-east of Mexico - has more in common with the Caribbean island-states than with its Central American neighbours. This is reflected in its major languages, English and Creole, and in its mainly Anglo-Caribbean architecture and its relatively peaceful political culture. However, Belize has a problem with violent crime, much of it drug-related, and the trafficking of narcotics to the USA.
Belize, formerly known as British Honduras, was the UK's last colony on the American mainland. Its independence was delayed until 1981 by long-running tension with neighbouring Guatemala, which still claims a large portion of its territory. Guatemala recognised Belize's independence in 1991, but the neighbours have yet to settle their border dispute, which is rooted in colonial times.
Now I'm 60 ...
I was 60 last week and, having now reached this venerable age, certain privileges come into play.
For instance, I now have a Freedom Pass to travel on London's tubes and buses. Then the national health service has written to me to offer a free bowel cancer test.
i prefer the former ...
July 03, 2008
Forgotten World (139): Saint Helena
Just ten miles long and six miles wide, St Helena sits in the middle of the South Atlantic as one of the most isolated, inhabited islands in the world: 700 miles to Ascension Island, 1500 miles to Tristan da Cunha and 1650 miles to Cape Town. Traditionally served by the Britain's last working Royal Mail ship, which visits the island twice a year, the island is about to obtain an airport in 2012.
The 4,000 islanders call themselves Saints and the island only has one town (Jamestown). The local economy is funded almost entirely by he British Government with just a little tourism.
Discovered by the Portuguese in 1502, it later came under the control of the British East India Company before the British Crown took control in 1834. Its main claim to historic fame is that Napoleon was exiled here after the Battle of Waterloo and died on the island.
July 02, 2008
My American friend Larry Cohen
One of my closest friends is also one of the most distant. Larry Cohen is now President of the Communication Workers of America (CWA) but I have known him for around 20 years. He has just completed his first three-year term as President and been elected unopposed for a second three-year term. You can read his address to the recent CWA convention here.
When I was myself a trade union official, I used to see Larry regularly in various countries of the world but, since I took early retirement six years ago, it's been more difficult to see one another. Today, however, i caught Larry for a couple of hours at London's Heathrow Airport as he flew from Switzerland back to the USA.
Larry is a superdelegate to the Democratic National Convention and, once his original favourite John Edwards withdrew from the primaries, he was an early public supporter for Barack Obama with whom he is in regular contact. It was an opportunity for me to see a great friend and to receive some insights into what's going on politically in the United States.
For America's labour unions, one of the biggest election issues is the Employee Free Choice Act. I know - you've never heard of it. You can learn about this proposed legislation here.
Happy birthday to my web site
Today is the ninth anniversary of the creation of this web site. I have to thank Vee's nephew Martin for getting me started by opening a homepage for me on one of those free hosting sites. Later he purchased a domain name with my name for me.
Over the intervening years, the site has grown enormously in content and I've added two blogs, so typically I receive around 6,000 visits a day.
Many thnks to all my readers for their support and encouragement. Please spread the word!
Forgotten World (138): Fiji
The 800-plus volcanic and coral islands that make up the Pacific nation of Fiji enjoy a tropical climate and are a prime destination for tourists. However, since 1987 racial and political tensions have been an intermittent source of instability and international isolation and there have in fact been four coups in the last 20 years.
Fiji's population of almost a million, which resides mostly on the two main islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, is divided almost equally between indigenous Fijians and Indo-Fijians, the descendants of indentured labourers brought from India. Mixing between the two groups is minimal, and informal segregation runs deep at almost every level of society.
Although the former British colony relies heavily on the sugar and tourism industries for its foreign exchange, its economy is diverse. Nonetheless, Fiji has been hampered by persistent trade and budget deficits, making it one of the world's largest per capita recipients of aid.
July 01, 2008
Happy birthday to the NHS
Just five days after my 60th birthday, today we celebrate the 60th anniversary of the creation of the National Health Service. I was one the last babies in Britain to be born outside the NHS but, for 60 years, I have - like many millions - relied on it enormously.
The NHS is one of the defining features of our welfare state and the proudest achievement of Labour Governments. Today it is in the capable hands of Alan Johnson who used to be my boss at the Communication Workers Union and is now the Secretary of State for Health.
Forgotten World (137): Gabon
Now that Fidel Castro has stepped down as president of Cuba, Gabon holds the dubious distinction of having the world's longest-serving leader that is not a monarch: Albert-Bernard Bongo has been president for more than 40 years. He has ruled largely unchallenged and mostly without force, despite squandering much of the country's natural wealth (especially oil) and creating a most uncertain economic future.
Although technically Gabon became a multi-party state in 1993, the opposition has literally been bought off and cronyism and corruption are rife with most of Bongo's wealth hidden overseas. On paper, Gabon has one of the highest per capita incomes in Africa, but half the population of 1.3 million remains poor. Nearly 50 years after independence from France, the country has fewer miles of paved road than of oil pipelines.
June 30, 2008
The fringe benefits of failure and the importance of imagination
This was the unusual title chosen by author J K Rowling for her recent address at Harvard. It makes a wonderful read and has given me a couple of marvellous suggestions for my "Thought For The Week".
Read the text here
Forgotten World (136): South Korea
It's time for another week of postings in my long-running series called Forgotten World - a look at parts of the world that hardly feature in our media or thoughts. You can check the previous 135 entries here.
The Republic of Korea - otherwise known as South Korea - was proclaimed in August 1948 and received UN-backed support from the US after it was invaded by the North two years later. The Korean War ended in 1953 without a peace agreement leaving South Korea technically at war for more than fifty years. The following four decades were marked by authoritarian rule, while government-sponsored schemes encouraged the growth of family-owned industrial conglomerates, known as "chaebol", which helped to create one of the world's major economies. A multi-party political system was restored in 1987.
Today South Korea is a nation of 49 million with the 13th largest economy in the world and still among the world's fastest growing developed countries. It has a very advanced and modern infrastructure and is a world leader in information technology such as electronics, semiconductors, LCD displays, computers and mobile phones. It is defined as a High Income Nation by the World Bank and an Advanced Economy by the IMF and CIA. A major non-NATO ally, it has the world's sixth largest armed forces and one of the ten largest defence budgets in the world.
June 29, 2008
Why are oil prices rising so fast? (3)
It's all about demand, right?
"A major factor behind the steady price rise, virtually everyone agrees, is that energy consumption is surging in high-growth countries, and oil supplies are not growing fast enough to keep up. But what confounds many experts is that the price of oil seems to be changing much faster than the world is changing. For example, it took five years, from 2002 to 2007, for oil to go up by $60 a barrel. In just the last year, it galloped another $60 higher. For the first time since oil drilling began in the 1850s, the price has climbed for seven consecutive years."
In my first blog posting on this subject, I argued that fear and speculation must be playing a major role in driving up prices so much faster than the market fundamentals would require or suggest. Others agree that speculation is at work:
"there is broad disagreement about the role of speculators in oil markets — particularly a new breed of financial investors, including pension funds and hedge funds, who view oil and other commodities as just another way to make money, like stocks, bonds and real estate.The evidence of their impact is mixed, but consumers and lawmakers nevertheless are furious, saying these new financial traders are driving up prices. "
"Some experts who see today’s oil market as a bubble point to the record-setting stake that institutional investors have taken in the commodity markets in the last several years, variously estimated at $140 billion to $250 billion. A growing portion of that stake reflects rising commodity prices, not new money flowing in."
Extracts from an article in the "New York Times".
This is a bubble which will burst - but let's hope that it's soon.
My 60th birthday celebration
Although my 60th birthday was earlier in the week (see posting on Wednesday), it was yesterday that we had a gathering of family and friends to celebrate the event - and it was truly wonderful day.
The venue - organised by my wife Vee - was the Grim's Dyke Hotel, a country house that used to be occupied by Sir William Gilbert (of Gilbert & Sullivan fame). The actual location was the Music Room which has a floor to ceiling carved Alabaster fireplace and a minstrels gallery. The weather was wonderful and the food and service excellent.
No less than 63 of us (including seven children) gathered for the celebration. Vee offered some welcoming words and our son Richard gave a short toast. I then took the opportunity of a captive audience to give a speech which paid tribute to some of the people who had influenced each of the first six decades of my life and were present at the party. Finally Georgeanne and Andy led a sing-song in my honour.
I received an embarrassing number of gifts. There were no less than 16 books, so I'll have a busy summer. There were three bottles of champagne, so Vee and I can be very merry. There were two presents picking up on the year of my birth (1948): a full set of British coins for that year and an original edition of "The Aeroplane" magazine for the actual day of my birth. A really fun gift was a floating globe using clever magnets and technology. Then I was given a token for a flight in a glider. There were another 19 cards, making a total of 46, plus 20 electronic messages. I had no idea I had so many friends!
Truly I am blessed with a wonderful family and a fantastic set of friends and I thank them all for making this day so very special.
Roger gives his sister Silvia a big cuddle
while James Peixoto looks on
Roger behind David & Sharon, Vee's nephew and his wife
Roger hugs the mother of his Chinese 'son' Zhihao
Little and large: Vee with Roger's half-brother Chris
June 27, 2008
Brown's first year at No 10
All of the media today mark the first anniversary of Gordon Brown taking over from Tony Blair as Prime Minister. Naturally the "Guardian has a good deal of analysis. It could hardly bee a worse day for anniversary reflections, following on appalling opinion poll ratings for Labour and for Brown specifically and today's news of the party coming fifth in the Henley by-election.
For a Labour loyalist like me who has long had a great respect for Brown (and even greatest admiration - with qualifications - for Blair), the last 12 months have seemed like a Greek tragedy. How did someone so talented who wanted the job so much for so long fall from favour so far and so fast?
One cannot blame Brown for the increases in oil and food prices and the slow-down in the economy which are the result of global factors, but of course one can blame him for a string of indecisive positions, most notably the fiasco over the Autumn General Election that never happened (at the time, I blogged about my opposition).
So, should we have seen this coming? Consider these two quotes taken from a decade apart:
"'There is a great streak of self-doubt about Gordon'. Others have made a similar point, on a deep background basis, though, in a man whose springs of action were forged in such a religious setting, it is perhaps not surprising that there should be theological-style doubts from time to time. Set against those misgivings is the enormous intellectual effort he puts into making up his mind before he acts. Brown, his friends and aides agree, takes a very long time to reach decisions - but once there, it is virtually impossible to shift him.""Gordon Brown: The Biography" by Paul Routledge 1998
"The Guardian has spoken to eight people who have either known Brown for up to 20 years or have worked closely with him; they describe a man who works fiendishly long hours and is preoccupied by minutiae. There is anxiety that he is too short-term, worrying about the immediate, rather than concentrating on the strategic. The early morning and late night messages are often brusque though they are certainly keeping people on their toes. His image in Whitehall is undoubtedly being fashioned by the shock many civil servants experience when Brown emails them directly for the first time, expects an instant response and draws them into a vortex of activity that runs into the night and the next day.""Guardian" article, 25 June 2008
June 26, 2008
Al-Qaeda's use of the Net
"It is just plain embarrassing that al-Qaeda is better at communicating its message on the Internet than America," Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said in a speech in November. "As one foreign diplomat asked a couple of years ago, 'How has one man in a cave managed to outcommunicate the world's greatest communication society?' "More information in this article from the "Washington Post".
June 25, 2008
The American presidential election (46)
This "Newsweek" article makes some good points about Barack Obama and Europe:
- Overwhelmingly Europeans want to see Obama returned to the White House.
- Europeans don't have a vote in this election and any attempt to interfere will be unhelpful to Obama.
- Obama as President could well present some challenges to Europe - he will advance American interests which are not always European interests.
Today I am 60
It is my 60th birthday today. I'll be spending the day at a conference on postal services, but this evening my wife Vee will be taking me for dinner at our favourite local restaurant "Incanto" and then on Saturday we will have a gathering of around 50 family and friends to celebrate.
I feel that I have been very lucky with my life as I explain in these notes on "Why It's Fun To Be In One's Sixties In Britain".
Footnote 1: A sign of the electronic times is that, as well as (so far) 27 birthday cards through the post, I've had six e-mails (including one from Afghanistan), five SMS message (including one from Zambia) and nine blog comments (including one from the USA). Thanks to all!
Footnote 2: My wife has bought me for my birthday the two books written by Barack Obama: "Dreams From My Father" and "The Audacity Of Hope".
Footnote 3: As I mentioned in this posting, the management term that currently most irritates me is "going forward" (what's the alternative?). At the postal conference I attended today, I counted 20 instances of the use of this phrase, no less than 15 of them by Adam Crozier, the Chief Executive of Royal Mail.
June 24, 2008
Prague Spring: revolution or reform?
In the summer of 1968, I was 20 and becoming very interested in international politics. I followed with interest and excitement the attempts by the Czechoslovak Communists to reform their political structures and I was desperately saddened and angered by the invasion of the Warsaw Pact forces which brutally crushed these efforts at reform. I did not know then that years later I would marry a woman whose father was Czech and visit the country over 20 times.
This evening, I was at the Czech Embassy in London to hear a lecture by Dr Oldrich Tuma entitled "The Prague Spring After 40 Years: Anti-Communist Revolution Or Campaign To Reform Communism?" The answer to the question appears to be: both. The liberalisation process started as the latter but, as people took control of developments away the Communist Party, it became something of the former - which is what scared the Soviet leadership and brought about the occupation.
Before attending the lecture, I had coffee and a chat with my close Slovak friend Ivan Sloboda. I took him to a place he had never seen before: Cafe Diana which is just opposite the Czech and Slovak Embassies and very close to where Princess Diana used to live. Although i am constitutionally a republican (but certainly not politically a Republican!), I find this cafe fascinating because the walls are covered from top to bottom with photographs of Diana.
June 23, 2008
Why are oil prices rising so fast? (2)
Brown's analysis of the causes of record oil costs was at odds with the Opec president, Chakib Khelil, who reiterated his view opposing increased production, saying "the price is disconnected from fundamentals" of supply and demand. "We believe that the market is in equilibrium. The price is disconnected from fundamentals. It is not a problem of supply." The Indian finance minister, Palaniappan Chidambaram, agreed, saying producers and consumers should "wrest control" of trading by agreeing to restrict prices."Surely demand and supply cannot explain what has happened over the last 12 months," he said. "Oil prices were $70 a barrel in August 2007 and how is it that they've doubled when there has been no dramatic change in demand?"This is a quote from a news story today on the weekend oil summit in Saudi Arabia.
I have to say that - as will be clear from my posting of two weeks ago - I'm with OPEC rather than Brown on this one. Markets are not always rational.
If the cause is rising demand, then prices will continue to rise because demand will continue to rise but supply will probably only increase marginally (in the short term anyway). If the cause is not rising demand but more probably panic and speculation, then we can expect that sometime in the future prices will fall back, although probably not to the level before the current crisis took hold.
Let's see what happens. Meanwhile consumers around the world are suffering.
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